To start, some photographic evidence of the birthday bash this weekend (not a lot, I promise). Here is one of the PGOAT attempting to strangle Sparkle:
Sparkle had her revenge, though, utilizing her tail to snap a picture of this candid Ali shot:
Next, we have the unquestionably excellent stylings of the Non-Vet men. As you will recall, this is moments before their cheating Pippens stole the Trivial Pursuit title for the evening (only to have it stripped like the Ben Johnsons they are):
I beg that you look carefully at that man in the middle. You will quickly learn why the new nickname of Ali's Ben is "The Grin."
So there you have it. Sunday turned out to be a much more somber affair - the last part of it, anyways. Beck spent her last day working in the ER, so I ambled around the apartment starting to feel the effects of breathing Beck's second-hand germs. I watched Chicago disembowel New Orleans in the first game on Sunday - bad news for my buds from NO (Matt and Speckle, I'm sorry), but good news for Da Bears. Plus it gives us a chance to see Brian Urlacher pulverize Peyton in the Super Bowl...
Wait, what's that you say? Yeah, hence the somber affair comment - the Pats blew a 21-3 lead to the Colts and lost 38-34 Sunday night. Just in case you're living in a cave. Sadness abounds, but not much to say - a few key plays (that too many men in the huddle play was killer) (and the PI call on Troy Brown, what the hell) (and, while we're at it, that roughing the passer on the last Colts drive was STOO-pid - I mean, I'm all for protecting the moneymakers, but a "blow to the head" usually consists of a little more than having hands within 3 feet of Peyton's large-foreheaded, product-selling noggin) were the difference in a defenseless game. But, all in all, the Colts big-time earned it. I'm just bummed that the Colts are finally making it to the Super Bowl with what is probably their worst team of the past few years - just happened to coincide with the pats worst team, too. And, lest we forget, the Chargers were one boneheaded interception away from having this game played in San Diego, instead. So, we'll count the blessings for another great, over-achieving Pats run, and hope the Bears can make a brutal show of it in Miami.
Before I forget - there is one stellar thing to point out about the Bears game. Early on, the Bears have it fourth and about 1/2 a yard at the 4 (yes, I will go ahead and say "at the Saints' 4," even though you should know that there's no way it can be fourth and half a yard at your own 4. Sheez). The Bears, flummoxed by an utterly unanticipatable situation (he said sarcastically), call timeout to discuss their options. A quick little stats check would tell you that you've got at least a 75% chance of converting 4th and 1/2 a yard, leading to a later attempt at a probable touchdown. Let's say at worst that the overall scenario of going for it is a 50/50 shot at a TD, or 3.5 points. I think that's reasonably conservative, actually. Let's also not forget that should you fail, the other team gets the ball at their own 4, not exactly the worst spot for your D to be in. All of this is versus the relatively guaranteed (let's say 95%) field goal for 3 points - or an expectation of 2.85 points. Eventually, some coach will sprout a brain and realize that you shouldn't pass up TD attempts. Lovie Smith (Bears coach) apparently did exactly that, sending in his O. The announcers immediately start declaring that this is the "wrong call."
It gets better. Last week, Lovie Smith did this exact same thing - went for it on fourth and short, passing up an attempt at an easy field goal. The announcer says that "that may have been okay last week, but this is the NFC championship, and you need the points." Um... you mean this was okay last week when you were facing elimination from the playoffs, but not okay this week when you're facing elimination? Huh? The announcer's comment was idiotic, of course, but he amps it up a bit - the Bears run for it, get two yards and the first down. The announcer of course says "I guess it was the right call." Awesome; I didn't realize that you could evaluate percentage-based calls solely on their results. I would like to ask the announcer - what's wrong with just saying that he made an "aggressive call," or really, if you think about it, the statistically preferable call? Why the right / wrong dichotomy? Oh, I forgot, we're stupid.
The tale of absurdity does not end there. The Bears now have it first and goal at about the two. First down, incomplete pass. Second down, run for a yard and a half. They now have it at the 1/2 yard line, 3rd and goal. Another incomplete pass. It's now fourth and goal, 1/2 a yard to go for the touchdown. Wait for it, wait... the Bears send in the kicking team!!!
"Now this is the right call," the announcer reliably chimes in. What? It was the right then the wrong call two minutes ago?!?!?! And now it's right again? ARRRRRRGGGHHH! And Lovie Smith, what exactly has changed? If anything, you're in a a better position now, closer to the goal line! Maybe, MAYBE you could argue that being closer to the goal line makes the playable field smaller and you only have a 60% chance of making 1/2 a yard. But now that half a yard is a direct touchdown! That's .6 times 7 = 4.2. Veruss 3 for the FG. What changed in the last two minutes? This is the exact same call you made 4 plays ago!!! ARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHH! The only thing I can guess is some kind of gambler's fallacy, like "well, we just used up our luck." Moronic. Either that or he suddenly realized that Rex Grossman is his QB.
And the announcers point none of this out. I know I'm a stathead and all, but this stuff seems ridiculously basic - the coach was either just completely inconsistent or he just gave up on his offense. And no one says this. Again, what's wrong with identifying certain calls as aggressive or conservative. No one even brought up whether they thought this was going to be a high or low scoring game, so 3 guaranteed may be worth more than usual (in the case of a low scorer), or 3 may be worthless, or 7 may be a dagger in a low-scoring game. none of this even comes up. I am generally disgusted by the level of analysis that goes into NFL game commentating - when are we going to get past the stop the run, stop the pass, control the line of scrimmage blah blah blah that everyone knows is how every game is played?????
All right, sports rant over, new topic, new post.
No comments:
Post a Comment